Author(s): Sanjeeta Biswas and Shubhaom Panda

Abstract: Irrigation is an artificially supplying and systematically distribution of water for agriculture and horticulture in order to obtain higher or qualitatively better production when rainfall is scarce or during off monsoon. The present paper explains the changing pattern of net irrigated area by different sources of irrigation in India i.e. canals, tanks, wells (tube wells and other wells) and total net irrigated area (NIA) through the use of statistical analysis of time series. A time series modelling approach is used to forecast the future values. For the study, data with respect to canals, tanks, wells and total NIA are collected from Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Govt. of India for the period of 72 years (1951-2022). This study is accomplished by using a Box-Jenkins ARIMA time series model in SPSS and STATA Software and R codings. The efforts are made to forecast the future net irrigated area by different sources for a period upto ten years as accurate as possible. This paper entails on the best fitted ARIMA model and its forecasting. Validity of the model has also been tested.It is found that ARIMA (0, 1, 4) fitted best for canals, ARIMA (1, 0, 1) for tanks and ARIMA (1, 0, 3) for total NIA whereas for well irrigation ARIMA (1, 0, 2) is the best fitted model. ARIMA models are selected on the basis of satisfying the best fitted model criteria. This paper has made an attempt to assess the contribution of different sources of irrigation which shows that the use of well irrigation is effectively increasing as an important source of irrigation.

DOI: 10.33545/26174693.2024.v8.i5Sb.1161